The constitutional amendment extending President Sisi’s term gives him extra power at a time when sustained growth levels indicate the economy is responding to the bailout medicine.
Economic risk (MEDIUM): Stronger growth, a budget surplus, falling unemployment, and falling in a- tion have raised hopes it will nd a sustainable growth path to create the jobs needed.
Political risk (HIGH): The passage of the constitutional amendment enabling Sisi to remain president until 2030 creates political stability. The state of emergency has been extended for three months.
Financial risk (MEDIUM): Foreign exchange ows received by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) since the otation of the pound in 2016 have exceeded EGP150bn. Capital adequacy is well above Basel minima.
Commercial risk (MEDIUM): Egypt has risen swiftly up the World Bank’s Doing Business index. The IMF has praised the government for its reform, but the privatisation programme appears stalled.