Country Risk Reports
Algeria: Risk January 2019
Algeria faces an era of economic and political stagnation and concerns over its scal management as it embarks on consolidation under an ageing leader. Economic risk (MEDIUM): The economy is…
Saudi Arabia: Risk December 2018
Outrage at the murder of Jamal Khashoggi has added to concern that Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman may face curbs on his power that might in turn a ect progress…
Egypt: Risk December 2018
Egypt’s con dence in not needing to renew its nance line from the IMF together with sustained growth levels are further signs the economy is responding to the bailout medicine.…
Syria: Risk December 2018
The interventions by the US, Turkey, Russia, Iran and Israel in Syria add to the risks of international escalation. The economy, politics and nances in Syria are likely to continue…
United Arab Emirates: Risk December 2018
The United Arab Emirates is a stable country in terms of politics and economics but has been a ected by repercussions from the Qatar blockade and OPEC’s quota caps .…
Kuwait: Risk December 2018
Kuwait will enjoy 4%+ growth after 2017’s slump thanks to higher oil output and prices. Risks remain relating to the geopolitical and domestic political backdrop and the commercial environ- ment.…
Qatar: Risk December 2018
Qatar has shown strong resilience in the face of the economic blockade by its four Arab neigh- bours. But there is little sign of an end to the crisis and…
Bahrain: Risk December 2018
Bahrain’s move to become a high tech nancial hub could be undermined by concerns over its external nancing position, a more hardline authoritarian streak, and diplomatic rift with Qatar. •…
Iraq: Economy December 2018
Political outlook unclear as veteran Adel Abdul Mahdi forms cabinet The veteran politician Adel Abdul Mahdi has stepped in to become prime minister after the May 2018 election left no…
Iraq: Risk December 2018
Hopes of a return to stable government have risen after the return of veteran politician Adel Abdul Mahdi as the country’s prime minister. Economic growth is still at risk while…
Tunisia: Risk November 2018
Tunisia has striven to push through reforms needed to secure the fourth tranche of a $2.9bn credit line from the IMF. But political risks further may be lifting after January…
Oman: Risk November 2018
Oman faces sizeable and persistent twin de cits and the prospect of a meagre growth outlook, while succession risk hangs over the sultanate. Economic risk (HIGH): The drop in oil…
Morocco: Risk November 2018
The outlook for Morocco depends on its success in pushing through its reform agenda. Meanwhile risks remain from global economic conditions, and high unemployment. Economic risk (MEDIUM): The economic recovery…
Lebanon: Risk November 2018
Lebanon’s anaemic economic growth is due to the ongoing Syrian war, political paralysis, the refugee crisis and weak public nances. Economic risk (HIGH): Economic prospects remain sluggish amid the political…
Iran: Risk November 2018
The second round of US President Donald Trump’s sanctions will seriously weaken Iran’s economy, its nances, inward investment and the politics of the region. Economic risk (HIGH): Now that the…
Egypt: Risk November 2018
A recent raft of positive economic news and praise by the IMF are further signs the economy is showing signs of responding to the bailout medicine. Economic risk (MEDIUM): Stronger…
Algeria: Risk November 2018
SUMMARY Algeria faces an era of economic and political stagnation and concerns over its scal management as it embarks on consolidation under an ageing leader. Economic risk (MEDIUM): The economy…
United Arab Emirates: Risk October 2018
The United Arab Emirates is a stable country in terms of politics and economics but has been affected by repercussions from the Qatar blockade and OPEC’s quota caps. Economic risk…
Qatar: Risk October 2018
Qatar has shown strong resilience in the face of the economic blockade by its four Arab neighbours. But there is little sign of an end to the crisis and an…
Kuwait: Risk October 2018
Kuwait will enjoy growth after 2017’s slump thanks to higher oil output and prices. Risks remain relat- ing to the geopolitical and domestic political backdrop and the commercial environment. Economic…
Saudi Arabia: Risk October 2018
The political revolution unveiled by Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman and the possible shelving of the Aramco flotation raise questions about the economic reform programme. Economic risk (MEDIUM): A return…
Egypt: Risk October 2018
A recent raft of positive economic news and praise by the IMF are further signs the economy is showing signs of responding to the bailout medicine. Economic risk (MEDIUM): Stronger…
Bahrain: Risk October 2018
Bahrain’s move to become a high tech financial hub could be undermined by concerns over its external financing position, a more hardline authoritarian streak, and diplomatic rift with Qatar. Economic…
Tunisia Risk September 2018
Tunisia has striven to push through reforms needed to secure the third tranche of a $2.9bn credit line from the IMF. But political risks further may be lifting after January…
Oman Risk September 2018
Oman faces sizeable and persistent twin deficits and the prospect of a meagre growth outlook, while succession risk hangs over the sultanate. Economic risk (HIGH): The drop in oil revenues…
Morocco Risk September 2018
The outlook for Morocco depends on its success in pushing through its reform agenda. Meanwhile risks remain from global economic conditions, and high unemployment. Economic risk (MEDIUM): The economic recovery…
Libya Risk September 2018
Implementing a true government of national unity is needed to mend economic and social destruc- tion since the fall of Moamer Gaddafi. Risk levels remain extremely high. Economic risk (HIGH):…
Egypt Risk September 2018
A recent raft of positive economic news is a further sign that the economy is showing signs of respond- ing to the IMF medicine. Economic risk (MEDIUM): Stronger growth, a…
Algeria Risk September 2018
Algeria faces an era of economic and political stagnation and concerns over its fiscal management as it embarks on consolidation under an ageing leader. Economic risk (MEDIUM): The economy is…
Yemen Risk August 2018
A warning of the worst famine since 1945 adds to signs of further deterioration of Yemen as a country. The ceasefire by the Saudi-UAE coalition in its attack on Hodeidah…