A severe outbreak of cholera has added to the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophe since 1945 that
shows signs of further deterioration. The failure of peace talks has reduced the already low hopes of
• Political risk (HIGH): The failure of the UN-sponsored peace talks has left to a swift and devastating
resumption of fighting while Islamic State is exploiting a vacuum of power.
• Economic risk (HIGH): The severe contraction in growth of 28.1% in 2015 may be the nadir in the
economic depression but forecasts for a rebound are being downgraded.
• Financial risk (HIGH): The government’s financial position will deteriorate while the war goes on
while the move of the central bank has created confusion.
• Commercial risk (HIGH): Business opportunities for foreigners are subject to extreme security hazards
while commercial trade has plummeted and investment remains virtually non-existent.