Although official statistics are no longer available, evidence suggests that Yemen’s GDP has contracted by more than half cumulatively since 2015. Looking forward, economic prospects in 2018 and beyond will critically depend on rapid improvements in the political and security situation. Ultimately it will depend on whether an end to the on-going conflict will allow for rebuilding the economy and Yemen’s social fabric, the World Bank warned in April 2018. The lender says that the economy will contract by 0.5% in 2018 and then grow 17.9% and 16.3% in 2019 and 2020. It had said in January it believed the economy would grow 9% and 14% in 2018 and 2019 respectively as long as the two-year conflict could be brought to an end. However, there is little sign of an end to the conflict in January 2018, indicating the economy could suffer further downturns. The International Monetary Fund replaced its October 2017 forecast for an 8.5% recovery in growth in 2018 with a dire outlook for a contraction of 0.5% in its April 2018 world economic outlook. It shifted the recovery into 2019 when it expected growth to rebound by 17.9% rather than the 13.5% it had expected. The civil war that began in March 2015 has caused economic devastation in Yemen. The economy shrank by 9.8% in 2016 and 28.1% in the previous year. The two year-long civil war has led to an almost complete halt in oil and gas production in a country that relies almost exclusively on oil export revenues. At least 7m people — a quarter of the population — are living under emergency levels of food insecurity, a 15% increase since June 2015.