Tunisia is struggling to push through reforms after securing a $2.9bn credit line from the IMF and $8bn from regional allies. Political risks further may be lifting.

Economic risk (MEDIUM): The weak growth outlook, rising inflation, and higher borrowing costs threaten a sustainable recovery. Unemployment rates, particularly among graduates, are still at worrying levels.

Political risk (HIGH): The Cabinet reshuffle is a sign the new prime minister is cementing his power base but the extension of the state of emergency is a sign of ongoing security issues.

Financial risk (MEDIUM): The adoption of new banking sector legislation, especially in bankruptcy and central bank governance, and business plans for public banks will enhance the sector’s ability to tackle high non-performing loans.

Commercial risk (MEDIUM): Tunisia is still ranked highly within the region in terms of the ease of doing business. The World Bank has given a $500m loan to support the business environment.