Tunisia has strived to push through reforms needed to secure the fourth tranche of a $2.9bn credit line from the IMF. But political risks further may be lifting after January 2018’s unrest.
Economic risk (MEDIUM): The economy is on track for 4% growth, but the foreign exchange reserves have risen on the back of tourism revenues and gas activity.
Political risk (HIGH): The domestic political turmoil threatens to roil the economy ahead of polls not due until the end of 2019. A Truth and Reconciliation report has highlighted the role of current president Béji Caïd Essebsi played in quelling 1960s disturbances.
Financial risk (MEDIUM): The downgrade in the outlook on Tunisia’s banks to negative from stable is a reminder of the sector’s vulnerabilities. The adoption of new banking sector legislation will enhance the sector’s ability to tackle high non-performing loans.
Commercial risk (MEDIUM): Tunisia is still ranked highly within the region in terms of the ease of doing business and is attracting foreign investment. The government is using the Budget 2019 law to cut corporate taxes and push out business reforms.