Tunisia has strived to push through reforms needed to secure the fourth tranche of a $2.9bn credit line from the IMF. But political risks further may be lifting after January 2018’s unrest.
Economic risk (MEDIUM): Economic activity is picking up, but the Tunisia’s foreign exchange reserves continue to be eroded.
Political risk (HIGH): The break-up of the alliance between the ruling party and moderate Islamists threatens to revive political divisions. The return of British tourists is positive.
Financial risk (MEDIUM): The downgrade in the outlook on Tunisia’s banks to negative from stable is a reminder of the sector’s vulnerabilities. The adoption of new banking sector legislation will enhance the sector’s ability to tackle high non-performing loans.
Commercial risk (MEDIUM): Tunisia is still ranked highly within the region in terms of the ease of doing business. The World Bank has given a $500m loan to support the business environment.