The interventions by the US, Turkey, Russia, Iran and Israel in Syria add to the risks of international escalation. The economy, politics and nances in Syria are likely to continue on a downward slide.

• Economic risk (HIGH): As much as 80% of the productive capacity has been destroyed and, although the rate of decline is slowing, the risk is that full recovery could take years once peace is restored.

• Political risk (HIGH): The air strikes by the Assad regime in northern Syria threaten the Idlib truce while the Astana peace process appears no closer to achieving a sustainable settlement.

• Financial risk (HIGH): Public de cits and a mounting national de cit point to a currency crisis without a restart in oil production at some point.

• Commercial risk (HIGH): The military con ict combined with EU and US sanctions will deter foreign investors while Syrian businesses face high hurdles. However, some countries are making plans.