The recapture of Deir Ezzor shows that the outcome war is turning to the Assad regime. But the economy, politics and finances in Syria are likely to continue on a downward slide.

Economic risk (HIGH): As much as 80% of the productive capacity has been destroyed and, although the rate of decline is slowing, the risk is that full recovery could take years once peace is restored.

Political risk (HIGH): The recapture of Deir Ezzor, Aleppo and Raqqa have shown that while Islamic State is in retreat the tensions between the US and Russia are unresolved.

Financial risk (HIGH): Public deficits and a mounting national deficit point to a currency crisis but a restart in oil production could turn the corner.

Commercial risk (HIGH): The continued military conflict combined with EU and US sanctions will deter foreign investors while Syrian businesses face high hurdles.