Reports that the Saudis are revising their economic transformation plan will cast doubt on their commitment to reform. Any failure to deliver will risk fiscal crisis, currency devaluation, rising unemployment and civil unrest.

Economic risk (MEDIUM): With the economy already in a mild recession the risk is of a contraction of growth in 2017. This will add to problems implementing the National Transformation Plan.

Political risk (HIGH): The stature of Prince Mohammed as Crown Prince has been weakened by the plans to redraft the economic transformation plan that was seen as his initiative and the possible private placement of shares in Aramco.

Financial risk (LOW): The banking system is stable, well-regulated and well-capitalised but that would be at risk in the case of a sharp economic downturn. Its stock market may be upgraded to EM status by MSCI in 2019.

Commercial risk (MEDIUM): The country sits in the middle of the World Bank’s Doing Business index and takes a harsh line on corruption and bribery. The grant of freedom for women to drive maybe a milestone on the path to further reform.