The political revolution unveiled by Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman raises questions about the economic reform programme, anti-corruption measures and political instability in the normally stable kingdom.
Economic risk (MEDIUM): Figures on Q1 2018 growth will show the depth of the economic turnaround. The extra 1m of oil to be pumped will not affect Saudi Arabia as it will likely continue to exceed the quotas.
Political risk (HIGH): The decision to go through with granting women the right to drive shows the Crown Prince’s social reform programme is on track.
Financial risk (LOW): The banking system is stable, well-regulated and well-capitalised but that would be at risk in the case of a sharp economic downturn. Entry into the MSCI emerging markets index will attract funds into the market.
Commercial risk (MEDIUM): The right for Saudi women to drive will aid female entrepreneurship. The country sits in the middle of the World Bank’s Doing Business index. It may soon offer more relaxed tourist via rules.