Growth has slowed sharply but the kingdom has put an economic transformation plan in place. Any
failure to deliver will risk a fiscal crisis, a currency devaluation, and/or rising unemployment and civil
unrest as the country seeks to cut spending and diversify its economy.
• Political risk (HIGH): The elevation of Prince Mohammed as Crown Prince has removed any uncertainty
over succession. But the embargo of Qatar may raise tensions.
• Economic risk (MEDIUM): The recovery in the oil price following the latest Opec decision will only
partially offset the impact on growth from lower output; further fiscal measures are needed.
• Financial risk (LOW): The banking system is stable, well-regulated and well-capitalised but that
would be at risk in the case of a sharp economic downturn. Its stock market may soon be upgraded to
EM status by MSCI.
• Commercial risk (MEDIUM): The country sits in the middle of the World Bank’s Doing Business index
and takes a harsh line on corruption and bribery. It secured $350bn of deals with the US as part of
Donald Trump’s visit.