The political revolution unveiled by Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman raises questions about the economic reform programme, anti-corruption measures and political instability in the normally stable kingdom.
Economic risk (MEDIUM): With the economy already in a mild recession, the ability of bin Salman to push through his economic transformation programme is even more important.
Political risk (HIGH): The move by Prince Mohammed as Crown Prince to arrest 200 princes, officials and business owners has fuelled speculation that his father, King Salman, may abdicate in his favour..
Financial risk (LOW): The banking system is stable, well-regulated and well-capitalised but that would be at risk in the case of a sharp economic downturn. Its stock market may be upgraded to EM status by MSCI in 2019.
Commercial risk (MEDIUM): The country sits in the middle of the World Bank’s Doing Business index but the Vision 2030 has ambitious targets for boosting the private sector. Christine Lagarde praised Saudi Arabia to support female entrepreneurs through dedicated programmes.