Qatar has shown strong resilience in the face of the economic blockade by its four Arab neighbours. But there is little sign of an end to the crisis and an ongoing risk of escalation.
Economic risk (MEDIUM): The growth downgrade by the IMF is the latest sign that Qatar’s economic participants need to prepare for lower growth for longer — but not recession.
Political risk (MEDIUM): The French intervention in the diplomatic crisis will have given succour to Doha, but a resolution appears as far away as ever.
Financial risk (MEDIUM): S&P has put Qatar on downgrade watch, which might impact Qatar’s ability to raise debt on the capital markets. Banking data show a slippage in credit and loans in the spring of 2018.
Commercial risk (MEDIUM): Foreign direct investment in Qatar has fallen in the first quarter of 2018. The inclusion of Qatar in emerging market equities and bonds indices could attract new money, how- ever.