Qatar has shown strong resilience in the face of the economic blockade by its four Arab neigh- bours. But there is little sign of an end to the crisis and an ongoing risk of escalation.

• Economic risk (MEDIUM): The growth upgrade by the IMF is the latest sign that Qatar’s economy is likely to remain resilient.

• Political risk (MEDIUM): The lack of public comment on the embargo may point to a resolution. Inter- nally, political risk in Qatar is low.

• Financial risk (MEDIUM): Moody’s says banking sector pro tability will remain “stable” with capital bu ers remaining “strong” . Banking data show a slippage in credit and loans in the spring of 2018.

• Commercial risk (MEDIUM): Foreign direct investment in Qatar has risen in the second quarter of 2018. The inclusion of Qatar in emerging market equities and bonds indices could attract new money, however.