The first anniversary of Qatar’s economic blockade has shown the emirate’s resilience. But there is little sign of an end to the crisis and an ongoing risk of escalation.
Economic risk (MEDIUM): The growth downgrade by the IMF is the latest sign that Qatar’s economic participants need to prepare for lower growth for longer — but not recession.
Political risk (MEDIUM): The French intervention in the diplomatic crisis will have given succour to Doha, but a resolution appears as far away as ever.
Financial risk (MEDIUM): Qatar’s success in raising debt on the capital marks and a ratings upgrade to stable for the banking sector points to financial stability. A three-way bank merger has been called off.
Commercial risk (MEDIUM): Foreign direct investment in Qatar has risen by around 27% in 2017, implying that the emirate has retained the trust of global investors in the country’s economy Qatar has drafted new laws that would give foreign investors 100% ownership.