
Palestine Risk December 2017
Political and security uncertainties may be easing but the outlook for growth is gloomy. There is an urgent need for scaled up support from financial donors to fill a $600m financing gap.
Economic risk (HIGH): A downgrade in growth forecasts is a reminder of the structural problems facing both West Bank and Gaza.
Political risk (HIGH): The reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah and the interest of the White House in peace talks between the PA and Israel bode well.
Financial risk (HIGH): Further shortfalls in budget support or a failure of the PA to contain spending would weaken an already fragile fiscal position. The link between banks and PA financing is concerning.
Commercial risk (MEDIUM): Businesses has leapt up the World Bank doing business index but firms still face obstacles both from external border restrictions and internal commercial hurdles.