Oman faces sizeable and lasting twin deficits and the prospect of a meagre growth outlook, while succession risk hangs over the sultanate.
Economic risk (HIGH): The fall in the international oil price has pushed the fiscal and current account balances into the red, raising the risk it will have a net asset deficit by 2020.
Political risk (MEDIUM): Oman is determined to stick to a neutral line in the row between Qatar and the other Gulf states. Fears of a succession problem have receded.
Financial risk (LOW): The downgrade of Oman’s banking system by Moody’s is a warning that softer growth and tighter monetary conditions will hit institutions.
Commercial risk (MEDIUM): Investors still face a number of obstacles to set up a business in Oman. But the government is revamping the foreign capital investment law and Oman enjoyed an influx of FDI in 2016.