Lebanon’s anaemic economic growth is due to the ongoing Syrian war, regional tensions, the refugee crisis and weak public finances.
Economic risk (HIGH): Growth remains low. Lebanon is in a protracted period of low growth of 1%–2%, well short of potential.
Political risk (MEDIUM): The return of some militants to Syria should reduce border tensions but the country still has to maintain the delicate sectarian balance.
Financial risk (MEDIUM): Rising public debt levels are a risk but Lebanon has shown it is able to raise capital. The banking system is well capitalised but the challenging economic environment is having an impact on banks.
Commercial risk (MEDIUM): Lebanon has a low ranking in the World Bank’s Doing Business report but is seeking to establish itself as a tech hub.