It may take some months to know who will form the next government after the 2018 elections. Economic growth is still at risk while Iraq is a difficult place to do business in.
Economic risk (HIGH): The outlook for growth is for a milder recession followed by modest growth as the non-hydrocarbon economy looks to fill the gap left by oil.
Political risk (HIGH): The surprise victory of firebrand cleric Moqtada al-Sadr in the May 2018 will create short-term uncertainty while a government is formed and long term doubts over relations with the US and Iran.
Financial risk (HIGH): The government’s fiscal and external balances are vulnerable to continued low oil prices. There is a risk of bank bailouts endangering sovereign solvency.
Commercial risk (HIGH): Opaque and stifling bureaucracy makes Iraq one of the world’s hardest places to do business. The central bank has offered $5bn of SME credit lines.