Optimism triggered by Rouhani’s re-election was offset by Donald Trump’s threat to cancel the nuclear deal although outside investors remain keen.

Economic risk (MEDIUM): The lifting of sanctions should result in stronger growth as long as a Trump’s threat to cancel the nuclear deal does not become reality.

Political risk (MEDIUM): Trump has raised uncertainty over the keynote nuclear deal that will strengthen the hands of reformist president Hassan Rouhani’s opponents.

Financial risk (MEDIUM): The banking system is weak with inadequate capital ratios, high leverage ratios, and high non-performing loans. However debt is low and reserves adequate.

Commercial risk (MEDIUM): Iran is in the middle of the World Bank’s Doing Business table and should improve as sanctions lift but sanctions have left a legacy of insularity and bureaucracy.