The imminent decision by Donald Trump over whether to cancel the nuclear deal threatens to crimp growth, stir political opposition to Rouhani, and deter investors.
Economic risk (MEDIUM): Even assuming the sanctions are waived, unemployment remains high and non-oil sector activity remains subdued.
Political risk (MEDIUM): Scrapping the keynote nuclear deal that will strengthen the hands of reformist president Hassan Rouhani’s opponents.
Financial risk (MEDIUM): The banking system is weak with inadequate capital ratios, high leverage ratios, and high non-performing loans. However debt is low and reserves adequate.
Commercial risk (MEDIUM): Iran is in the middle of the World Bank’s Doing Business table and should improve as sanctions lift but sanctions have left a legacy of insularity and bureaucracy.