The tough medicine of the $12bn IMF loan and a 55% currency devaluation is starting to cure the patient but security issues remain a concern.
Economic risk (MEDIUM): An easing in the contraction in non-oil activity and a rise in reserves and remittances is good news but there is a risk that the targets under the IMF programme may be hard to achieve.
Political risk (HIGH): A downturn in relations between the US and Egypt is a blow to Cairo. Egypt’s involvement in the Qatar diplomatic embargo may add to tensions.
Financial risk (MEDIUM): The banking system has proved robust during the turmoil of the last few years and received an upbeat rating from Moody’s. Reserves are at record levels.
Commercial risk (MEDIUM): The government has passed a long-awaited investment law and but the ban on passengers taking laptops on board flights to the US and UK will irk business travellers. However foreign direct investment is attracted by the cheap pound.