The economy is showing signs of responding to the IMF medicine but there is a lack of clarity over President Sisi’s agenda.
Economic risk (MEDIUM): Stronger growth, falling deficits, a turnaround in tourism, and fresh investment are good news and the government is targeting 5.8% growth in the 2018/19 year.
Political risk (HIGH): It is still unclear what President Sisi will do in his second term won with just 40% turnout. There is growing concern over a humanitarian crisis in the Sinai.
Financial risk (MEDIUM): The banking system has proved robust during the turmoil of the last few years and financial markets have given a vote of confidence with two eurobond sales for $6bn.
Commercial risk (MEDIUM): The government has delivered follow-up amendments to the long-awaited investment laws and has indicated it plans to sell privatise state-owned firms.