Egypt’s con dence in not needing to renew its nance line from the IMF together with sustained growth levels are further signs the economy is responding to the bailout medicine.
• Economic risk (MEDIUM): Stronger growth, a budget surplus, falling unemployment, and falling in a- tion have raised hopes it will nd a sustainable growth path to create the jobs needed.
• Political risk (HIGH): The renewed e orts to persuade President Sisi to change the constitution to serve a third term is a further sign of creeping authoritarianism. The state of emergency has been extended for three months.
• Financial risk (MEDIUM): The banking system has proved robust during the turmoil of the last few years and had got an upgrade from Moody’s. Capital adequacy is well above Basel minima.
• Commercial risk (MEDIUM): Egypt has risen swiftly up the World Bank’s Doing Business index. The IMF has praised the government for improving access to land; promoting competition; improving transparency of state-owned enterprises; and ghting corruption.