Summary

Egypt’s con dence in not needing to renew its nance line from the IMF together with sustained growth levels are further signs the economy is responding to the bailout medicine.

• Economic risk (MEDIUM): Stronger growth, a budget surplus, falling unemployment, and falling in a- tion have raised hopes it will nd a sustainable growth path to create the jobs needed.

• Political risk (HIGH): The renewed e orts to persuade President Sisi to change the constitution to serve a third term is a further sign of creeping authoritarianism. The state of emergency has been extended for three months.

• Financial risk (MEDIUM): The banking system has proved robust during the turmoil of the last few years and had got an upgrade from Moody’s. Capital adequacy is well above Basel minima.

• Commercial risk (MEDIUM): Egypt has risen swiftly up the World Bank’s Doing Business index. The IMF has praised the government for improving access to land; promoting competition; improving transparency of state-owned enterprises; and ghting corruption.