The economy is showing signs of responding to the IMF medicine but security and domestic political issues remain a concern.
Economic risk (MEDIUM): Strong growth, an easing in the private sector downturn and a turnaround in tourism are good news but there is a risk targets under the IMF programme may be missed.
Political risk (HIGH): Arrests of LGBT people and harsh sentences for Morsi protestors anger show authoritarian nature of administration. Egypt’s involvement in the Qatar diplomatic embargo may add to tensions.
Financial risk (MEDIUM): The banking system has proved robust during the turmoil of the last few years and has received an upbeat rating from Moody’s. Reserves are at record levels.
Commercial risk (MEDIUM): The government has passed a long-awaited investment and licensing laws and but has slipped in the World Bank’s index on the ease of doing business.