The return to a budget primary surplus is a further sign that the economy is showing signs of responding to the IMF medicine.
Economic risk (MEDIUM): Stronger growth, a budget surplus, a turnaround in tourism, and fresh investment are good news and the government is targeting 5.8% growth in the 2018/19 year.
Political risk (HIGH): The announcement of the new government’s agenda in June 2018 will restore confidence sapped by the 40% election turnout. There is growing concern over a humanitarian crisis in the Sinai.
Financial risk (MEDIUM): The banking system has proved robust during the turmoil of the last few years, net foreign assets are at a record high, and financial markets have given a vote of confidence with two Eurobond sales for $6bn.
Commercial risk (MEDIUM): The government has delivered follow-up amendments to the long-awaited investment laws and has indicated it plans to privatise state-owned firms.