The political debate over extending President Sisi’s term threatens to overshadow sustained growth levels that are signs the economy is responding to the bailout medicine.

Economic risk (MEDIUM): Stronger growth, a budget surplus, falling unemployment, and falling in a- tion have raised hopes it will nd a sustainable growth path to create the jobs needed.

Political risk (HIGH): A public referendum on a reform to the constitution to extend the president’s terms could be an outlet for protest. The state of emergency has been extended for three months.

Financial risk (MEDIUM): The banking system has proved robust during the turmoil of the last few years and has got con rmation of an upgrade from Moody’s. Capital adequacy is well above Basel minima.

Commercial risk (MEDIUM): Egypt has risen swiftly up the World Bank’s Doing Business index. The IMF has praised the government for its reform, but the privatisation programme appears stalled.